by Ryan Dougherty

Editor's note: In celebration of the Phillies' opener that's going on right about... well, now, here's a preview from a reader who'll soon be a writer. Enjoy!

It’s Opening Day in Philadelphia, and the forecasts for the weather and the Phillies are bright. Which means a plurality of Delaware Valleyians is thinking one thing: “How are they gonna [foul] it up this time?” It’s hard-boiled and reasonable skepticism. As has been the case for five years now, the Phillies look like an 85-90 win team, and it’ll probably take 90 for them to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Will this be the year? The answer to that question, in this Phillyist's humble opinion, depends on the answers to these five.

Which Jimmy Rollins will show up to start the season?
It’s no secret that the Phillies start slowly, which can also be said of shortstop Jimmy Rollins. And that’s no coincidence—as he goes, they go. Indeed, between 2004 and 2006, Rollins posted a paltry .651 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) in April and .683 in May. The Phillies’ record in those months: 30-47. In August, however, he posted an .815 OPS, and his September/October tally is a staggering 1.024. The Phils’ record in those months: 56-32. So, can he get out of the gate more quickly this year? The good news is he drew more walks in spring training than he usually does, but only time will tell whether that’s an anomaly or a commitment to waiting for a pitch to drive (and being OK with a walk if that pitch doesn’t come).

What’s the deal with Pat Burrell?
Has any other player in the history of baseball looked so clueless at the plate in the process of hitting 29 homers with 95 RBIs and 98 walks, as Pat the Bat did last year? Whether it was pain from injuries to his wrist, feet, or psyche, by the end of last season Burrell became a part-time player—and, following the trade of Bobby Abreu, public enemy number one at Citizen’s Bank Park. A new wrinkle to the saga emerged in the spring with reports that Burrell’s vision has declined. As we see it, there are two ways this thing can go—he’ll either go back to flailing at those low-outside curveballs or don a pair of rec specs and become a Philly folk hero.

Can the starting pitching hold up?
All you need to know about how much the Phillies have improved their starting pitching is that last year’s opening day starter and ace, Jon Lieber, enters this season a spare part. But the rotation has just two givens: Brett Myers, who is a year older and (hopefully) more mature, and Jamie Moyer, who couldn’t shatter a window with his fastball but beguiles hitters. Cole Hamels has the ability to win the Cy Young award, but there are concerns about his declining velocity in spring training and the fact that he pitched three times as many innings in 2006 as in 2004 and 2005 combined. A lack of velocity this spring from newcomer Freddy Garcia is also worrisome, but if he stays healthy you can pencil him in for 15 wins and 220 innings. The biggest crapshoot is another new arm, Adam Eaton, who got off to a great start for the Padres in 2004 but has been plagued by injury and inconsistency ever since.

Will the bullpen kill them?
The ‘pen is not only the most glaring weakness but, it could be argued, the only area in which the defending N.L. East champion, the New York Mets, are better. Last year was a tale of two seasons for closer Tom Gordon, who earned a trip to the All-Star Game with a 2.17 ERA and 46 strikeouts in the first half of the season but slipped to 5.32 and 22 thereafter. Beyond that the Phils’ are hoping one of the lot of Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, and Antonio Alfonseca ascends as a dependable set-up man and the other two can hold down the 6th and 7th innings. Don’t be surprised if the Phillies dangle Aaron Rowand or Jon Lieber later this month or closer to the trade deadline to bolster the ‘pen with an established back-end reliever.

Can Ryan Howard continue saving babies from burning buildings?
The reigning N.L. MVP hit like a mere mortal in spring training, but that’s not of much concern. Whether he can duplicate his monster 2006 tallies of 58 home runs and 149 RBIs, however, is tricky. And he kind of set himself up for a fall from grace from the notoriously critical Phillies fans. What can he do for an encore? Abolish the wage tax? Look for a slight drop-off from last year’s tallies, but he’ll produce tons of runs, and his career OPSs of 1.214 in August and 1.324 in September suggest he’s at his best when the lights come on. Let’s hope that this year we get the chance to see what he can do late into October.

Image Credit: lindseywb